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Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn
Dear Valued Investor, LPL Research recently unveiled Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn, the semi-annual report that recaps where markets and the economy have been over the first half of 2024. I am excited to bring you a...
Read MoreSolid Gains to End the First Half
Stocks finished the first half of the year the same way they started — with solid gains. Strong rallies from big tech names, combined with somewhat softer economic and inflation data, helped propel the S&P 500 to its seventh monthly...
Read MoreInflation, Geopolitics in an Election Year
The Fed’s preferred inflation measure held steady in April at 2.8% annually but is likely to come down further over the balance of the year as the economy slows and higher interest rates continue to impact big-ticket purchases...
Read MoreProfits Still Rising Despite Sticky Inflation
A solid 80% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates so far this quarter, with more than 8% average upside relative to estimates. Results from the big technology companies have mostly exceeded high expectations. And perhaps...
Read MoreValue Sectors Show Signs of Strength in March
The first quarter is in the books, and it was an excellent one for stocks. The S&P 500 index rode a resilient U.S. economy, easing inflation, rising corporate profits, and anticipation of summertime rate cuts from the Federal Reserve...
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To Cut or Not to Cut
Inflation expectations over the next 12 months have convincingly improved, giving the Federal Reserve (Fed) reasons to pivot. We will likely notice improving inflation dynamics later this week. Risk appetite improved as...
Read MoreHave Returns Been Somewhat Pulled Forward?
Following on from November’s “Turkey Rally”, December defied weaker recent seasonality trends and delivered a present for investors in the form of outsized stock market returns. Now as we move into January and...
Read MoreWill the Santa Rally Come to Town?
November lived up to its reputation as a strong month for stocks with the November “Turkey Rally” delivering outsized returns. Now as we look ahead to December, investors are asking the question: Is the Santa Claus Rally coming to town?
Read MoreNovember Has Been Seasonally Strong
When studying the proportion of positive monthly returns since 1950 November has posted a positive return around 69% of the time. The only months that have historically finished in the green more often are April and December...
Read MoreHistorical Look at Government Shutdowns
The bad news is it looks like the government is headed for another shutdown; the good news is the stock market has seen this before. The government has had 20 shutdowns since 1976. The average length of those shutdowns was eight days...
Read MorePullbacks are Typical in a Bull Market
Stocks have pulled back modestly this month as overbought conditions met overhead resistance. While there is still strong support for stocks being in a sustainable bull market, we suspect odds for a pullback in this rally are increasing.
Read MoreInterest Rates, Inflation and our Market Outlook
Lower inflation may continue to support stocks in the months ahead as the Federal Reserve (Fed) winds down its interest rate hiking campaign. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure (the core PCE deflator) dropped a half point in...
Read MoreA Historical Look at Markets after Fed Pauses
After 15 straight months of raising interest rates, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept rates unchanged last week during their June monetary policy meeting. The pause in rate hikes was widely expected. The surprise came in...
Read MoreHas a New Bull Market Already Begun?
The bulls are back in town, at least according to the technical qualifier of a 20% advance off a bear market low. There is additional supporting evidence for the S&P 500’s bull market designation, including, but not limited to,...
Read MoreThe Debt Ceiling - A Look Back at 2011
We believe the odds of the government defaulting on its debt obligations remain low. However, without a debt ceiling deal, the probabilities of a technical default are not zero and headline risk will remain elevated until a resolution is...
Read MoreMarkets Digest a Flurry of Recent News
Although it initially appeared that a stable spring would set the markets up for a calm, quiet summer, a flurry of recent activity is testing investor sentiment. JPMorgan—with financial support from the FDIC—will acquire First Republic....
Read MoreThree Takeaways from the Fed Decision
OverviewAs we expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the fed funds rate by 0.25%, pushing the upper bound to 5.00%.Financial conditions were stable enough for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to release updated projections,...
Read MoreBank Failures Raise Market Distress
Stock and bond market activity was materially shaken last week as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (SIVB), fell into FDIC receivership. SVB is the first FDIC-insured institution...
Read MoreMarket Challenges and Opportunities
Whether you’re one to set ambitious New Year’s resolutions or simply use the beginning of the year to reset on a few habits, there’s almost always some value in reflecting on the past year before looking ahead. The...
Read MoreThe case for optimism after a tough year
Given the market’s instability during 2022 and a tough period for stock and bond returns, everyone is hoping for a better year in 2023. And history gives us cause for optimism following a difficult year for stocks. While each new...
Read MoreInvestors Looking for Balance
Through all the challenges, newfound opportunities, and every high and low we’ve experienced during the last couple of years, it’s no surprise why we might be striving for more balance in our lives. Whether it’s...
Read MoreInvestors Looking Toward 2023
October is now behind us and it has delivered on its track record as a historically favorable month for stocks, offering some respite for investors as major equity indices rose for the month. The downside pressure on equities had...
Read MoreElection Results Point to Mixed Government
The main takeaway from election results currently is likely a mixed government, which we continue to view as market-friendly overall. There’s still some counting to do in some key races, but it remains very likely Republicans...
Read MoreLooking to Company Earnings for Clues
This has clearly been a challenging year for households. Stocks and bonds are both down while food and gas prices continue to stretch budgets, and higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs.But we continue to see signs that...
Read MoreHistorical Look at Peak Investor Bearishness
In the last several weeks, we have continued to face elevated uncertainty in financial markets due to high inflation and rising interest rates, and we thought it was an important time to review things with the final quarter of 2022...
Read MoreInflation Not Easing Quickly Enough
As the market closed out August weaker and begins the historically weak month of September, questions about whether the bear market has truly ended linger. September data releases and the upcoming Fed meeting on September 20-21 could ....
Read MoreMarkets React to Earnings and Inflation Data
Last week was quite eventful for market-watchers. A Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, a much-anticipated gross domestic product (GDP) report, and the busiest week of earnings season got most of the headlines. There was even a surprise...
Read MoreLabor and Inflation Data Provide Some Clues
In contrast to what some pundits are suggesting, the economy is not currently in recession. The job market is too hot for that scenario – at least for now. We do expect the labor market to expand throughout the next several months.
Read MoreA Historical Look at Bear Markets
Since World War II seven bull markets have officially doubled. The recent bull market was the fastest to ever double but it also ended much quicker than the others at less than two years old. What could happen next? History may be a guide.
Read MoreFundamentals and First Quarter Earnings
2022 has been a challenging year for investors so far. Markets don’t like uncertainty but it’s getting a healthy dose of it this year, dealing with high inflation, tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy and COVID-19 shutdowns in China.
Read MoreStocks are down for the year, what's next?
For the first time since March 2020, the S&P 500 Index officially moved into a correction, down 10.3% from the recent highs. With heightened geopolitical tensions and earnings season winding down, what's the outlook now?
Read MoreRussia, Earnings, GDP and a Midterm Election Year
The S&P 500 Index fell nearly 10% from January 3 through January 27. After such a steady march higher in 2021, the dip may have caught some investors off guard. Here are some numbers that may provide reassurance.
Read MoreThe Fed's Hawkish Shift
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has engineered a hawkish shift, causing a bit more stock market volatility recently. But how worried should investors be? Here we take a look back at historical performance for stocks before, after, and much after.
Read MoreEarnings Remain Strong while Fed Begins to Taper
Stocks have impressively gained 20% year-to-date, with the S&P 500 making 53 new all-time highs before the end of August—another new record. All of this has happened with very little volatility, as the S&P 500 hasn’t had so...
Read MoreStocks Post Gains Despite Supply Chain Issues
Six months and counting. That is the current monthly winning streak for the S&P 500 Index. To take that a step further, this key equity benchmark has posted gains in 13 of the last 16 months—dating back to the March 2020 low....
Read MoreThe Uneven Path to Normalcy
As we move into June, a path to normalcy is coming quickly with stadiums allowing full capacity, restaurants filling up, and summer vacations in full swing. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continues to recover remarkably quickly and the...
Read MorePost-Pandemic Normal is Approaching
It’s now been over a year since COVID-19 first hit American shores. While the pandemic has affected everyone to varying degrees, we can all agree that everyone’s life is different today than it was a year ago. It’s...
Read More2021 and the COVID Economy
A new year offers a welcomed turn of the calendar and a fresh start. However, it’s difficult to put 2020 completely behind us just yet because the COVID-19 pandemic still presents a significant threat. Healthcare workers continue...
Read MoreKeys to Sustaining the Economic Recovery
As 2020 comes to a close, we are already looking forward to a new year—and to a world very different from the one we’re leaving behind. Areas of the economy have been damaged and may never fully recover, but other areas...
Read MoreMarkets and the Democratic Process
The American people have voted, casting a record number of ballots under extraordinary circumstances, which is a testament to the enduring resilience of our democracy. Determining the outcome of our elections is a process, but it...
Read MoreElections and the Market
Speculation has been increasing that the November election results may be delayed or disputed, or both. A contested election might affect financial markets in several ways. Also, the news that President Donald Trump has tested positive...
Read MoreVaccines, Tech and the Economy
Autumn has arrived, with students back in school, baseball playoffs beginning, and football in full swing. Life is trying to get back to as normal as possible despite the ongoing impact from COVID-19. The number of new daily cases and...
Read MoreThe Economic Recovery May Be Leveling Off
Signs that the economic recovery may be leveling off have not prevented corporate America from delivering earnings well above expectations. Leaders like Apple, Amazon, and Facebook reported extremely strong results in the second...
Read MoreA Gradual Recovery, Not a Snapback
At the midpoint of 2020 were mindful that its been an extremely challenging year so far in the United States and around the globe. Were in the midst of a pandemic that continues to impact all of us our communities and our economies....
Read MoreEconomy Turns a Corner but the Fight is Far From Over
The July Fourth holiday will be very different this year. Although it is certainly a time to enjoy family and friends, and maybe even watch some fireworks, social distancing and a new wave of COVID 19 cases also may take a seat at the...
Read MoreLooking Beyond the Economic Weakness
As we look ahead to the summer months, we can’t help but think what a challenging year it’s been so far. At the same time, we’re encouraged by the resiliency and accelerated innovation among US businesses and the...
Read MoreThe Lifeblood of the US Economy
The economic struggles in our country are among the worst we’ve ever seen. In April, a record 20 million people lost their jobs, and 36 million people have filed for unemployment since the COVID-19 pandemic struck in mid-March....
Read MoreThe 'Great Disconnect' Between Stocks and the Economy
Investors like labels for the economy and financial markets—many of them with the word “great” in them. The Great Depression. The Great Recession. The Great Lockdown. Well, we’ve moved into what we might call...
Read MoreA Recession Unlike Any Other
22 million people have filed for unemployment in the past four weeks, nearly wiping out all the jobs created during the record 10-year economic expansion. Historic drops in consumer confidence, retail sales, industrial production, oil...
Read MoreThe Playbook for Investing in Bear Markets
These are challenging times, and this week may be the toughest as we wait for COVID-19 to reach its peak in the United States. As the war against COVID-19 wages on, we continue to be inspired by the tremendous bravery shown by...
Read MoreConcern Remains Elevated and Market Volatility Reigns
The world continues its battle against the COVID-19 pandemic, which now has likely impacted, either directly or indirectly, nearly every person on Earth. This is far more than just a health crisis—this is a human crisis. It is...
Read MoreEfforts to Flatten the Curve Come at a Cost
Our everyday lives have changed dramatically over the last few weeks as we work together to minimize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We know these efforts are necessary, but they also have come at a cost. Global economic growth...
Read MoreHas This Market Already Priced In An Economic Slowdown?
Fears over the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus) have gripped the country and sent stocks in the US and around the world into bear markets. What makes pandemics so much more personal than other crises is how they are felt by everyone,...
Read MoreDon't Try to Buy Snow Tires in the Middle of a Snow Storm
In your investing lifetime, you may only see a situation like the recent novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a few times. The truth is that we can’t yet gauge the full economic impact, and by the time we can, the volatility may have...
Read MoreA Historical Perspective on Market Corrections
Every virus outbreak is different, but looking back at other major global outbreaks over the last three decades (SARS, bird flu, swine flu, Zika, etc.), we can see that the impact to the U.S. and global economies has tended to be...
Read MoreCoronavirus and the Market
The start of 2020 has brought increased stock market volatility. The uncharacteristically calm market environment we experienced for much of the past four months was bound to end but identifying the catalyst for a potential sell-off...
Read MoreWhat a Difference a Year Makes
Happy New Year! What a difference a year makes. In December 2018, dropping stocks were suggesting an increased risk that a recession, or market crisis, might be on the horizon. Confidence in investing fundamentals coupled with...
Read MoreInvestment Outlook for 2020
As we look forward to the year 2020 and a new decade, some key trends and market signals will be important to watch. These include progress on U.S.-China trade discussions, slowing global growth, an encouraging outlook from corporate...
Read MoreMarket Reaches Fresh Highs, Uncertainty Looms
The S&P 500 Index reached a fresh new high October 28, eclipsing the previous high of 3,025 set July 26, 2019. Recent gains have been impressive amid heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and we believe fundamentals are...
Read MoreTrade Talks Resume, Will We Get a Deal?
Summer has turned to fall, and there’s already a little chill in the air. Three-quarters of the year is behind us now, and both stock and bond markets have had a strong year so far, although we expect to see regular—but...
Read MoreYield Curve Inverts Plus Trade Tensions Persist
After reaching new record highs in late July, the S&P 500 Index dropped approximately 1.8% in August as trade concerns pressured investor sentiment around the world. Impacts of U.S.–China trade tensions reverberated throughout...
Read MoreEconomic Update and US China Trade Deal
In a normal economic environment, stocks, bonds and gold typically do not experience simultaneous growth. But, these are not normal times: Domestic economic growth is steady, global demand is weakening, trade uncertainty prevails, and...
Read MoreGood Start for the Market in 2019, Will it Continue?
If it seems like the financial markets have been off to an unusually strong start to the year—you are correct. The S&P 500 Index has risen for four consecutive months, resulting in the strongest start to a year in more than 30...
Read MoreEconomic Update
April brings showers, baseball, and historically, the best month of the year for the S&P 500 Index (for the last 20 years). On top of that, the S&P 500 had its best first quarter since 1998, and in March we celebrated the 10-year...
Read MoreMarket Volatility Returns
After more than 18 months of nearly uninterrupted advances, the U.S. equity markets started declining last week, followed by even more extreme selling on Monday. Although it is always difficult to endure declines when they’re...
Read MoreDecember Market Update 2017
This time of year often presents an opportunity for some additional rest and relaxation, but there is always the possibility for activity in the markets—or as was the case last week, the government. Last Friday, December 22, 2017...
Read MoreNovember Market Update 2017
Traditional business cycle drivers are expected to take a larger role in spurring further economic and market growth in 2018, as we have experienced a fundamental shift in the forces behind this continued economic expansion. For the...
Read MoreOctober Market Update 2017
This time of year can seem quiet with summer vacations behind us but the buzz of the holiday season still a few weeks away. Although this sense of calm may be a welcomed break, there is plenty of activity in the U.S. and around the...
Read MoreSeptember Market Update 2017
During the past several weeks, we’ve seen news headlines dominated by everything from extreme weather to heightened geopolitical risks, with speculation on policy changes in the U.S. an ongoing hot topic.
Read MoreAugust Market Update 2017
As summer winds down, vacations come to a close, and kids head back to school, the calendar is relatively quiet in terms of major market events. And while expectations are high for a strong back-to-school shopping season, there has...
Read MoreJuly Market Update 2017
The hottest part of the summer has arrived across the U.S., with many feeling the effects of heat and humidity with temperatures well into the 90s in many places. At the same time, the stock market has put together a pretty impressive...
Read MoreJune Market Update 2017
It’s still early in the year, but a lot has been happening both in markets and the economy. The Dow’s first close ever above the 20,000 level drew a lot of attention to the granddaddy of the three major indexes, but the...
Read MoreDecember Market Update 2016
At this time last year, the market had finally recovered from an August swoon that left the S&P 500 more than 10% off its all-time highs, the first 10% correction in more than four years, with the worst still ahead in January and...
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