Blog

Historical Look at Government Shutdowns

The bad news is it looks like the government is headed for another shutdown; the good news is the stock market has seen this before. The government has had 20 shutdowns since 1976. The average length of those shutdowns was eight days...

Pullbacks are Typical in a Bull Market

Stocks have pulled back modestly this month as overbought conditions met overhead resistance. While there is still strong support for stocks being in a sustainable bull market, we suspect odds for a pullback in this rally are increasing.

Interest Rates, Inflation and our Market Outlook

Lower inflation may continue to support stocks in the months ahead as the Federal Reserve (Fed) winds down its interest rate hiking campaign. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure (the core PCE deflator) dropped a half point in...

A Historical Look at Markets after Fed Pauses

After 15 straight months of raising interest rates, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept rates unchanged last week during their June monetary policy meeting. The pause in rate hikes was widely expected. The surprise came in...

Has a New Bull Market Already Begun?

The bulls are back in town, at least according to the technical qualifier of a 20% advance off a bear market low. There is additional supporting evidence for the S&P 500’s bull market designation, including, but not limited to,...

The Debt Ceiling - A Look Back at 2011

We believe the odds of the government defaulting on its debt obligations remain low. However, without a debt ceiling deal, the probabilities of a technical default are not zero and headline risk will remain elevated until a resolution is...

Markets Digest a Flurry of Recent News

Although it initially appeared that a stable spring would set the markets up for a calm, quiet summer, a flurry of recent activity is testing investor sentiment.  JPMorgan—with financial support from the FDIC—will acquire First Republic....

Three Takeaways from the Fed Decision

OverviewAs we expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the fed funds rate by 0.25%, pushing the upper bound to 5.00%.Financial conditions were stable enough for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to release updated projections,...

Bank Failures Raise Market Distress

Stock and bond market activity was materially shaken last week as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (SIVB), fell into FDIC receivership. SVB is the first FDIC-insured institution...

Market Challenges and Opportunities

Whether you’re one to set ambitious New Year’s resolutions or simply use the beginning of the year to reset on a few habits, there’s almost always some value in reflecting on the past year before looking ahead. The...

The case for optimism after a tough year

Given the market’s instability during 2022 and a tough period for stock and bond returns, everyone is hoping for a better year in 2023. And history gives us cause for optimism following a difficult year for stocks. While each new...

Investors Looking for Balance

Through all the challenges, newfound opportunities, and every high and low we’ve experienced during the last couple of years, it’s no surprise why we might be striving for more balance in our lives. Whether it’s...

Investors Looking Toward 2023

October is now behind us and it has delivered on its track record as a historically favorable month for stocks, offering some respite for investors as major equity indices rose for the month. The downside pressure on equities had...

Election Results Point to Mixed Government

The main takeaway from election results currently is likely a mixed government, which we continue to view as market-friendly overall. There’s still some counting to do in some key races, but it remains very likely Republicans...

Looking to Company Earnings for Clues

This has clearly been a challenging year for households. Stocks and bonds are both down while food and gas prices continue to stretch budgets, and higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs.But we continue to see signs that...

Historical Look at Peak Investor Bearishness

In the last several weeks, we have continued to face elevated uncertainty in financial markets due to high inflation and rising interest rates, and we thought it was an important time to review things with the final quarter of 2022...

Inflation Not Easing Quickly Enough

As the market closed out August weaker and begins the historically weak month of September, questions about whether the bear market has truly ended linger. September data releases and the upcoming Fed meeting on September 20-21 could ....

Markets React to Earnings and Inflation Data

Last week was quite eventful for market-watchers. A Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, a much-anticipated gross domestic product (GDP) report, and the busiest week of earnings season got most of the headlines. There was even a surprise...

Labor and Inflation Data Provide Some Clues

In contrast to what some pundits are suggesting, the economy is not currently in recession. The job market is too hot for that scenario – at least for now. We do expect the labor market to expand throughout the next several months.

A Historical Look at Bear Markets

Since World War II seven bull markets have officially doubled. The recent bull market was the fastest to ever double but it also ended much quicker than the others at less than two years old. What could happen next? History may be a guide.

Fundamentals and First Quarter Earnings

2022 has been a challenging year for investors so far. Markets don’t like uncertainty but it’s getting a healthy dose of it this year, dealing with high inflation, tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy and COVID-19 shutdowns in China.

Market Turbulence Persists in April

Path Forward Defined by Earnings and Jobs

Stocks are down for the year, what's next?

For the first time since March 2020, the S&P 500 Index officially moved into a correction, down 10.3% from the recent highs. With heightened geopolitical tensions and earnings season winding down, what's the outlook now?

Russia, Earnings, GDP and a Midterm Election Year

The S&P 500 Index fell nearly 10% from January 3 through January 27. After such a steady march higher in 2021, the dip may have caught some investors off guard. Here are some numbers that may provide reassurance.

The Fed's Hawkish Shift

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has engineered a hawkish shift, causing a bit more stock market volatility recently. But how worried should investors be? Here we take a look back at historical performance for stocks before, after, and much after.

2022 Market Outlook

Earnings Remain Strong while Fed Begins to Taper

Stocks have impressively gained 20% year-to-date, with the S&P 500 making 53 new all-time highs before the end of August—another new record. All of this has happened with very little volatility, as the S&P 500 hasn’t had so...

Stocks Post Gains Despite Supply Chain Issues

Six months and counting. That is the current monthly winning streak for the S&P 500 Index. To take that a step further, this key equity benchmark has posted gains in 13 of the last 16 months—dating back to the March 2020 low....

The Uneven Path to Normalcy

As we move into June, a path to normalcy is coming quickly with stadiums allowing full capacity, restaurants filling up, and summer vacations in full swing. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continues to recover remarkably quickly and the...

Post-Pandemic Normal is Approaching

It’s now been over a year since COVID-19 first hit American shores. While the pandemic has affected everyone to varying degrees, we can all agree that everyone’s life is different today than it was a year ago. It’s...

2021 and the COVID Economy

A new year offers a welcomed turn of the calendar and a fresh start. However, it’s difficult to put 2020 completely behind us just yet because the COVID-19 pandemic still presents a significant threat. Healthcare workers continue...

Keys to Sustaining the Economic Recovery

As 2020 comes to a close, we are already looking forward to a new year—and to a world very different from the one we’re leaving behind. Areas of the economy have been damaged and may never fully recover, but other areas...

Markets and the Democratic Process

The American people have voted, casting a record number of ballots under extraordinary circumstances, which is a testament to the enduring resilience of our democracy. Determining the outcome of our elections is a process, but it...

Elections and the Market

Speculation has been increasing that the November election results may be delayed or disputed, or both. A contested election might affect financial markets in several ways. Also, the news that President Donald Trump has tested positive...

Vaccines, Tech and the Economy

Autumn has arrived, with students back in school, baseball playoffs beginning, and football in full swing. Life is trying to get back to as normal as possible despite the ongoing impact from COVID-19. The number of new daily cases and...

The Economic Recovery May Be Leveling Off

Signs that the economic recovery may be leveling off have not prevented corporate America from delivering earnings well above expectations. Leaders like Apple, Amazon, and Facebook reported extremely strong results in the second...

A Gradual Recovery, Not a Snapback

At the midpoint of 2020 were mindful that its been an extremely challenging year so far in the United States and around the globe. Were in the midst of a pandemic that continues to impact all of us our communities and our economies....

Economy Turns a Corner but the Fight is Far From Over

The July Fourth holiday will be very different this year. Although it is certainly a time to enjoy family and friends, and maybe even watch some fireworks, social distancing and a new wave of COVID 19 cases also may take a seat at the...

Looking Beyond the Economic Weakness

As we look ahead to the summer months, we can’t help but think what a challenging year it’s been so far. At the same time, we’re encouraged by the resiliency and accelerated innovation among US businesses and the...

The Lifeblood of the US Economy

The economic struggles in our country are among the worst we’ve ever seen. In April, a record 20 million people lost their jobs, and 36 million people have filed for unemployment since the COVID-19 pandemic struck in mid-March....

The 'Great Disconnect' Between Stocks and the Economy

Investors like labels for the economy and financial markets—many of them with the word “great” in them. The Great Depression. The Great Recession. The Great Lockdown. Well, we’ve moved into what we might call...

A Recession Unlike Any Other

22 million people have filed for unemployment in the past four weeks, nearly wiping out all the jobs created during the record 10-year economic expansion. Historic drops in consumer confidence, retail sales, industrial production, oil...

The Playbook for Investing in Bear Markets

These are challenging times, and this week may be the toughest as we wait for COVID-19 to reach its peak in the United States. As the war against COVID-19 wages on, we continue to be inspired by the tremendous bravery shown by...

Concern Remains Elevated and Market Volatility Reigns

The world continues its battle against the COVID-19 pandemic, which now has likely impacted, either directly or indirectly, nearly every person on Earth. This is far more than just a health crisis—this is a human crisis. It is...

Efforts to Flatten the Curve Come at a Cost

Our everyday lives have changed dramatically over the last few weeks as we work together to minimize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We know these efforts are necessary, but they also have come at a cost. Global economic growth...

Has This Market Already Priced In An Economic Slowdown?

Fears over the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus) have gripped the country and sent stocks in the US and around the world into bear markets. What makes pandemics so much more personal than other crises is how they are felt by everyone,...

Don't Try to Buy Snow Tires in the Middle of a Snow Storm

In your investing lifetime, you may only see a situation like the recent novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a few times. The truth is that we can’t yet gauge the full economic impact, and by the time we can, the volatility may have...

A Historical Perspective on Market Corrections

Every virus outbreak is different, but looking back at other major global outbreaks over the last three decades (SARS, bird flu, swine flu, Zika, etc.), we can see that the impact to the U.S. and global economies has tended to be...

Coronavirus and the Market

The start of 2020 has brought increased stock market volatility. The uncharacteristically calm market environment we experienced for much of the past four months was bound to end but identifying the catalyst for a potential sell-off...

What a Difference a Year Makes

Happy New Year! What a difference a year makes. In December 2018, dropping stocks were suggesting an increased risk that a recession, or market crisis, might be on the horizon. Confidence in investing fundamentals coupled with...

Investment Outlook for 2020

As we look forward to the year 2020 and a new decade, some key trends and market signals will be important to watch. These include progress on U.S.-China trade discussions, slowing global growth, an encouraging outlook from corporate...

Market Reaches Fresh Highs, Uncertainty Looms

The S&P 500 Index reached a fresh new high October 28, eclipsing the previous high of 3,025 set July 26, 2019. Recent gains have been impressive amid heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and we believe fundamentals are...

Trade Talks Resume, Will We Get a Deal?

Summer has turned to fall, and there’s already a little chill in the air. Three-quarters of the year is behind us now, and both stock and bond markets have had a strong year so far, although we expect to see regular—but...

Yield Curve Inverts Plus Trade Tensions Persist

After reaching new record highs in late July, the S&P 500 Index dropped approximately 1.8% in August as trade concerns pressured investor sentiment around the world. Impacts of U.S.–China trade tensions reverberated throughout...

Economic Update and US China Trade Deal

In a normal economic environment, stocks, bonds and gold typically do not experience simultaneous growth. But, these are not normal times: Domestic economic growth is steady, global demand is weakening, trade uncertainty prevails, and...

Good Start for the Market in 2019, Will it Continue?

If it seems like the financial markets have been off to an unusually strong start to the year—you are correct. The S&P 500 Index has risen for four consecutive months, resulting in the strongest start to a year in more than 30...

Economic Update

April brings showers, baseball, and historically, the best month of the year for the S&P 500 Index (for the last 20 years). On top of that, the S&P 500 had its best first quarter since 1998, and in March we celebrated the 10-year...

Market Volatility Returns

After more than 18 months of nearly uninterrupted advances, the U.S. equity markets started declining last week, followed by even more extreme selling on Monday. Although it is always difficult to endure declines when they’re...

December Market Update 2017

This time of year often presents an opportunity for some additional rest and relaxation, but there is always the possibility for activity in the markets—or as was the case last week, the government. Last Friday, December 22, 2017...

November Market Update 2017

Traditional business cycle drivers are expected to take a larger role in spurring further economic and market growth in 2018, as we have experienced a fundamental shift in the forces behind this continued economic expansion. For the...

October Market Update 2017

This time of year can seem quiet with summer vacations behind us but the buzz of the holiday season still a few weeks away. Although this sense of calm may be a welcomed break, there is plenty of activity in the U.S. and around the...

September Market Update 2017

During the past several weeks, we’ve seen news headlines dominated by everything from extreme weather to heightened geopolitical risks, with speculation on policy changes in the U.S. an ongoing hot topic.

August Market Update 2017

As summer winds down, vacations come to a close, and kids head back to school, the calendar is relatively quiet in terms of major market events. And while expectations are high for a strong back-to-school shopping season, there has...

July Market Update 2017

The hottest part of the summer has arrived across the U.S., with many feeling the effects of heat and humidity with temperatures well into the 90s in many places. At the same time, the stock market has put together a pretty impressive...

June Market Update 2017

It’s still early in the year, but a lot has been happening both in markets and the economy. The Dow’s first close ever above the 20,000 level drew a lot of attention to the granddaddy of the three major indexes, but the...

December Market Update 2016

At this time last year, the market had finally recovered from an August swoon that left the S&P 500 more than 10% off its all-time highs, the first 10% correction in more than four years, with the worst still ahead in January and...